(PoliticalLookout.com)- According to data obtained by the Trump campaign, Democrats are leading Republicans in a number of crucial swing states among mail-in and early votes. The data also suggests, however, that the Democrats are underperforming and not meeting the necessary lead that would give Joe Biden the edge in November.
Bill Stepien, Trump’s campaign manager, told reporters in a call on Monday that they are tracking absentee and early votes.
“We are tracking early and absentee votes in these states, every single day, and here are the facts. Democrats just aren’t getting the returns they wanted or needed to close out these states during the early and absentee periods,” he said.
Democrats have been pushing early and mail-in voting for several months, with campaign efforts focused on mobilizing the vote and getting people to turn out in droves before election day.
Data even shows that Republicans are overperforming among early votes in crucial battleground states, which is likely to come as a surprise to both campaigns. While Republicans are less likely to vote by mail owing to legitimate concerns about voter fraud and mismanagement, Florida Republicans are turning out in their droves for early voting in the state.
During the first day of early voting in Florida, Republicans beat Democrats – though the lead was soon taken over by the Democrats. Data up to October 21 showed 3,009,113 mail-in and early ballots completed in Florida, with registered Democrats in the state making up 48% of those votes. Registered Republicans made up 32%.
However, the data does not show how those registered Republicans and Democrats chose to vote.
The Washington Post polled Florida voters in September and found that 63% of Democrats preferred to either vote by mail or vote early, compared to just 35% of Republicans. If the data is accurate, it means that the Democrats should see twice the number of early votes than Republicans. As it stands, Democrats are falling behind.
It means that on election day, a huge turnout of Republican voters could flip the race.
Michigan tells a similar story. 67% of Democrats said they were planning on voting early or by mail in the battleground state, and only 32% of Republicans said the same. That means Democrats should outperform the Republicans in the state by 35%, but the data doesn’t show that. Out of the 1,695,900 votes already cast, Democrats and Republicans have an equal 40% share of the vote.
President Trump acknowledged the interesting data during a rally in Arizona on Monday.
“Something strange is happening in Michigan, it’s happening in other places, too, but it’s happening in Michigan,” he said. “We’re leading in the early vote and that’s never happened, that’s never happened before for the Republicans.”
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