(PoliticalLookout.com)- After weeks of disastrous polling results for President Donald Trump, it looks like the tide might finally be turning. A poll published by the Trafalgar Group on Monday indicates that people are turning away from hidin’ Joe Biden and placing their trust in President Donald Trump. The poll shows that likely voters in the battleground state of Wisconsin prefer Donald Trump to Biden by a 46% to Biden’s 45%.
It’s not a gigantic lead, but in these divided times, the 2020 election is widely expected to be a close one.
The poll asked 1,021 likely voters, asking them which candidate they intend on voting for. Respondents were asked between June 23 and 25, meaning the numbers may have even improved since then (or gotten worse…who knows!).
It is, however, good news for Trump. Recent polls in Wisconsin have shown former Vice President Joe Biden was a significant lead over President Trump in the polls. In some instances, the lead has been more than 10 percentage points, indicating a serious struggle for President Trump in the coming months to win back the key swing state.
However, much can happen between now and November. There will be three presidential debates (and no more, because Biden refuses to debate Trump any more than he is compelled to), and there will be many more opportunities for the public to see Joe Biden struggle to string sentences together. The outbreak of the Chinese coronavirus has, however, given Biden an excuse to avoid holding public rallies where he would be unable to draw a crowd even a fraction of the size of President Trump.
The Trafalgar Group poll used a different polling method than the other polls – and that’s good news for Trump. The poll had a much larger sample size and a smaller margin of error, meaning it’s much more likely that Trump is in a competitive race in Wisconsin. The other polls appear to be making the same mistakes as 2016, where Democrats were oversampled and the margin of error was too wide.
The Trafalgar poll also only asked likely voters, which consistently gives a more accurate result. Politico confirmed that they were consistently good in the 2016 election. The group showed Trump being ahead in Pennsylvania, and despite being mocked at the time, they were proven right.